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Sequence-of-returns risk is the danger that the order your investment returns arrive in — not just their average — determines whether your money lasts once you start withdrawing from it. Two portfolios can earn an identical average return over 20 years and end at completely different balances, because a withdrawal taken during a down year is gone for good, with nothing left to recover when the market turns back up.
It's a Medicare premium jump that can hit a surviving spouse two years after the other spouse dies — even if household income hasn't changed at all. It happens because every income threshold for Medicare's IRMAA surcharge is exactly half as wide for a single filer as it is for a married couple. Unlike most Medicare surcharge triggers, this one generally can't be appealed after the fact — the only real fix is planning before the first spouse passes away.